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Covid-19 cases in South Derbyshire

According to the Govt. website, it’s fifty-three new cases today (Wednesday). That’s not what the chart shows, (none yesterday) but that’s not unusual; it almost never does. The number includes cases added to earlier days in a process of continuous revision. Note that this is cases by specimen date.

If you are wondering why recent cases are so much higher than the first ‘wave’ you are not alone. I have read elsewhere that the early cases were massively under-reported – perhaps by a factor of five or ten!

What is much more important is that, because of the impact of false positives, the current so-called ‘second wave’ is overstated by a factor of up to five. Seems unbelievable, doesn’t it, but before you dismiss the idea you should read the comprehensive piece by Dr Michael Yeadon, Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives or the much shorter piece here at Ticknall Life.

Dr Michael Yeadon is eminently qualified to comment on the topic and says

This test is fatally flawed and MUST immediately be withdrawn and never used again in this setting unless shown to be fixed.

The chart below was updated on 28/10/2020. Could this be another peak? Could it just be meaningless, (or worse)? Fingers crossed! (Yes, it seems it has come to that.)

Is Ticknall on the way out of lockdown?

Sadly, with the suspension of Lunch Club again and significant numbers of new South Derbyshire cases, it looks as if not, but you can watch progress as the new calendar fills up – or not.

Is it all over bar the shouting?

Probably. But there’s going to be a lot of shouting.

Global data

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Bryan Smith
Latest posts by Bryan Smith (see all)

Bryan Smith

Bryan is the editor of Ticknall Life community magazine. (For over 20 years.)

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